Chapel Hill, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

525
FXUS62 KRAH 041339
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
935 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will linger north of the region as high pressure
extends westward across the Southeastern states through Sunday. A
cold front moving through Sunday and Monday will then bring below
normal temperatures for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 935 AM Friday...

Morning clouds will give way to partial sunshine by the afternoon
with a continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures.

Morning satellite imagery shows a deep upper trough extending across
the western CONUS, with an anomalously strong subtropical
ridging(all-time maximum) residing over the eastern half. A nearly
stationary front extending east from TEXARKANA into the southern Mid-
Atlantic will drift south towards the NC-VA state line this evening
before quickly lifting back north as a warm front Saturday.
Otherwise, SSELY low-level flow around the offshore Bermuda high
pressure will result in record warmth, especially wrt
overnight lows temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

In terms of rain chances, most of central NC will remain dry.
However, isolated showers will be possible during the late afternoon
and evening, INVOF the sagging front near the NC-VA border, along
the northern coastal plain counties.



&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

The weather pattern across central NC on Saturday will continue to
be controlled by a subtropical high aloft that remains anchored east
of FL and ridges up the Eastern Seaboard for one more day. Meanwhile
a 1025-1030 mb surface high centered east of GA/SC and SW of Bermuda
will slowly drift east. A cold front initially extended from eastern
TX to the mid-MS Valley and Lower Great Lakes early Saturday will
stretch from the TN Valley to the central Appalachians and New
England by early Sunday, as multiple waves of low pressure ride
along the front. This will help to push today`s backdoor front well
to our north, and with high pressure to our SE resulting in
capping/subsidence aloft, Saturday looks dry and partly to mostly
sunny. S/SW flow ahead of the approaching front will mean very warm
high temperatures once again, mainly in the upper-80s but some lower-
90s can`t be ruled out in the usual "hot spots" from the SW Piedmont
and Sandhills up to KRDU. This is around 15-20 degrees above normal
and near the daily record highs for April 5 at GSO, RDU and FAY. Dew
points should mix out to the lower-60s, which will keep apparent
temperatures near the actual air temperatures. This still results in
Experimental HeatRisk in the Level 1 (Minor) and Level 2 (Moderate)
categories. Skies will turn mostly cloudy on Saturday night, and
with continued southerly flow, lows will be very warm and near
record high minimums, only dropping to the mid-to-upper-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 445 AM Friday...

The Bermuda high will make a more significant shift east away from
us on Sunday, in response to an approaching mid-level southern
stream wave and a broad northern stream trough digging into the
Great Lakes and Northeast US. This will help push the cold front
east through central NC, as a wave of low pressure tracks along it.
Due to SW flow aloft, the frontal passage will be slow, and the
overall trend in guidance over the last few days has been to slow it
down. While the GFS is a bit faster than the ECMWF and CMC, all
three models are in good agreement that the front will gradually
move east across central NC Sunday night into Monday, and it will be
associated with a band of moderate to heavy rain. So continue likely
to categorical POPs from Sunday afternoon into Monday. Precipitation
may not completely clear our far SE until late Monday night if the
ECMWF and many of its ensembles are correct. With such a slow moving
front and ample moisture (PW values in the 1.5-2 inch range, or 200-
250% of normal), WPC continues to highlight our region in a marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall on Sunday/Sunday night,
which lingers in our south and east on Monday. Total QPF for the
event from WPC and ECM/GFS/CMC ensemble means is in the 1-2 inch
range, but the deterministic ECMWF and GFS both continue to have
stripes of 2-3 inches across a portion of central NC. The 90th
percentile QPF of their ensembles is also in a similar range,
indicating potential for isolated totals that high especially where
any storms train. At the same time, this would provide some welcome
drought relief as much of central NC is currently in D0 or D1
conditions.

Some storms will also be possible on Sunday and Monday, but at this
time instability looks marginal, with CAPE on the ECMWF and GFS
generally near or less than 500 J/kg, and their ensembles depicting
low probabilities of exceeding that. Mid-level lapse rates are weak,
but low-level lapse rates will steepen both days ahead of the front.
Furthermore, a 90-100 kt mid-level jet streak moving through the TN
and OH Valleys will result in strong deep layer shear and another
"high shear low CAPE" scenario. So SPC does have a marginal (level 1
of 5) risk of severe weather extending into the NC Piedmont on
Sunday, and wouldn`t be surprised to see a similar risk in our SE on
Monday. The main threat should be isolated damaging winds. Even
outside of convection, GFS point soundings on BUFKIT indicate gusts
of 30-40 mph will be possible during the day on Sunday. Sunday may
be a bit cooler from cloud cover and precipitation chances, but
still very warm with highs in the mid-to-upper-80s, which could
still approach some records. Sunday night`s lows will again be quite
mild (mid-50s to mid-60s) before we turn much cooler and close to
normal on Monday (highs mid-60s to lower-70s, lows in the 40s).

We finally dry out on Tuesday and skies turn sunny, as Canadian high
pressure builds in from the NW and westerly flow aloft around the
mid/upper low over the Great Lakes and New England pushes the cold
front well to our east. A reinforcing cold front on Tuesday will
bring a shot of even cooler, drier air with highs both Tuesday and
Wednesday only in the mid-50s to mid-60s (10-15 degrees below
normal) and dew points in the teens and 20s. As the surface high
settles near the Appalachians on Tuesday night, decent radiational
cooling conditions should support widespread lows in the lower-to-
mid-30s. Upper-20s will even be possible in outlying areas if ECM
guidance is correct, though GFS guidance is warmer as it displaces
the cold high more to the north of us. Either way, Tuesday night
will have to be watched for frost and freeze concerns. Temperatures
start to modify on Thursday with highs mostly in the mid-to-upper-
60s as the high begins to move offshore. A shortwave approaching
from the NW could bring the next chance of showers on Thursday if
the faster GFS is correct, while the GFS and CMC hold it back until
Friday. Enough GEFS members depict some precipitation to justify
slight chance POPs on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Friday...

MVFR ceiling currently across much of the region is expected to
linger through much of the morning. By the afternoon VFR conditions
will take over and continue through the afternoon and early evening
hours. Winds will generally be SW 5-10 kts with occasional gusts up
20kts. Gusts should subside in the afternoon/early evening as the
front sags south near the VA/NC border. The precip is expected to
stay north of all TAF sites so held off on adding any precip to the
12z TAF. MVFR and areas of IFR are possible late earl Saturday as
the front lifts north and moisture lingers across the region.

Outlook: A strong cold front will approach the area late Sunday into
Monday, and will be slow to move through NC. This will result in a
prolonged possibility of non-VFR weather. Conditions should improve
from Tuesday onward as cool high pressure settles overhead.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 4:
KGSO: 86/1934
KRDU: 88/1934
KFAY: 93/1910

April 5:
KGSO: 87/1942
KRDU: 90/1942
KFAY: 91/1942

April 6:
KGSO: 89/2010
KRDU: 93/1967
KFAY: 91/2010


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 4:
KGSO: 62/1999
KRDU: 63/2017
KFAY: 63/2017

April 5:
KGSO: 60/2023
KRDU: 64/1910
KFAY: 64/2008

April 6:
KGSO: 65/2023
KRDU: 69/2023
KFAY: 69/2023

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...CA/Leins
CLIMATE...RAH