Chapel Hill, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

338
FXUS62 KRAH 250713
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
312 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances will increase today and tonight as a weather
disturbance approaches from the west and crosses the Carolinas
tonight. The risk for showers will continue on Saturday until a cold
front crosses the region Saturday night.  High pressure along with
drier and pleasant weather will return for Sunday and linger through
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 312 AM Friday...

The primary player in the our weather during the near term period
will be a short wave that`s currently approaching the Miss Valley.
This wave is progged to quickly move east today reaching the TN
Valley by this evening and Central NC overnight. It`s this system
that will provide increasing rain chances as we head through today
and moreso tonight.

In the meantime, a stationary boundary across the Carolinas this
morning is noted by a sfc dwpt gradient with lower dwpts just north
of the VA line.  This boundary will transition to a warm front
lifting north today as low level flow increases ahead of the
approaching system from the west. The radar currently shows isold
showers invof or just N and NW of the Triad, perhaps assoc with this
boundary. While CAMS suggest that most of this activity will remain
W or NW of the Triad, will keep a mention of isold showers there
this morning.  Otherwise, most of central NC should remain dry this
morning and afternoon, with the exception of our eastern zones,
which may see remnant sea breeze-related showers late this afternoon
and early evening.  Highs today from the mid 70s NW to lower 80s E.

While we`ll show rain chances increasing late this evening and
overnight with the s/w trough approaching, the CAMs seems to be
suggesting that the coverage of shower/tstm activity will decrease
with time as a weakly organized line of convection moves east across
central NC overnight. This perhaps due to night-time timing and thus
minimized instability.  Nevertheless, don`t be surprised if you
heard a rumble or two of thunder overnight with these scattered
showers/tstms.  Lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday...

A surface low will be just northeast of Lake Ontario Saturday
morning with a cold front extending along the length of the
Appalachian Mountains. Models have been trending down with the
amount of precipitation locally from the front, and it now appears
that the higher precipitation totals could occur along the North
Carolina coastline. Have still maintained likely pops across the
entire forecast area during the mid afternoon, and still have
precipitation exiting the region by 06Z Sunday. However, outside of
any stronger showers/thunderstorms, most locations should receive
less than a tenth of an inch of rain on Saturday. Highs will range
from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. With the cold front crossing the
region around sunset, some cooler air will be felt Saturday night,
but it won`t be until Sunday that the full extent of the airmass
change is felt. Saturday night`s lows will range from the upper 40s
near the Virginia border to the upper 50s across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
As of 240 AM Friday...

By Sunday morning, Saturday`s cold front will have moved offshore
North Carolina, with high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley and
ridging extending into the Carolinas. The high will slide to the
southeast into early next week, allowing for dry weather Sunday,
Monday, and Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, low pressure will be over
eastern Quebec with a cold front arcing back to the southwest across
New England and the Ohio Valley. Similar to 24 hours ago, the
GEFS/EPS show a chance of showers extending farther to the south
than their deterministic counterparts, and have slightly bumped up
pops across northern counties. It appears that there should be a bit
of a lull in precipitation late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning before another wave of precipitation moves in Thursday
afternoon, but confidence is low on exact timing this far out.

Average temperatures for late April into early May are highs in the
mid to upper 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s. Values on Sunday
and Sunday night will be slightly below normal before returning to
near normal values Monday and increasing above normal Tuesday,
Wednesday, and Thursday. A few isolated locations will likely reach
90 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 146 AM Friday...

A stationary boundary with moisture along and to its south, coupled
with light SE low level flow, is manifesting in a good amount of mid
and low cloudiness across the Carolinas attm, along with MVFR cigs.
In the hours prior to sunrise, the cigs may briefly lower to IFR
criteria, then rise to high-MVFR or VFR during the late morning
hours.  Cigs will remain VFR through the rest of the daytime hours.
Late in the TAF period, cigs may once again lower, along with the
chance for scattered showers developing, as an upper s/w trough
approaches the region.

Outlook: Isolated showers will be possible late Friday night until
the sfc front crosses the area early Saturday night. High pressure
and a drier airmass will move in behind the front, restoring VFR
conditions for Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...np